bayesRatings

Pirates at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 6:15 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final PIT 3 – LAD 4
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT300000000361
LAD00022000470
Team box
PIT·LAD
6
hits
7
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
15
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
140
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD3-3200
Kyle TuckerLAD1-4102
Oneil CruzPIT1-4102
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-4001
Alek ThomasLAD1-4001
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared JonesPIT4.03255
Yohan Ramirez (L)PIT1.02202
Tarik Skubal (W)LAD7.053111
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · PIT 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
LAD by 0.8
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 4.1 PIT
Expected total
9.0
PiratesThe matchupDodgers
+145Our fair odds−145
4.1Expected runs4.9
−0.01Power rating+0.29
5.0Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game3.9
8.8Hits / game8.7
1.20Home runs / game1.29
3.6Walks drawn / game3.7
63−67Season record78−51
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+14541%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14559%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 0.8
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.8our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.8 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more32%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·LAD
Aug 21 at LAD
last game
Aug 21 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
PIT·LAD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
5.0
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
63−67
season record
78−51
34−32
home record
38−26
29−35
away record
40−25
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.8
hits / game
8.7
1.20
home runs / game
1.29
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.63
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

PIT · LAD · 147 days
Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Aug 21at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jun 11at PITLAD 8 − 6
Jun 10at PITPIT 9 − 8
Jun 9at PITLAD 12 − 3
Sep 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 7
Apr 27, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at LADPIT 3 − 0

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 21at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 19vs DET4 − 3W
Aug 18vs DET4 − 1W
Aug 17vs DET5 − 8L
Aug 16vs BOS8 − 3W
Aug 15vs BOS0 − 4L
Aug 14vs BOS8 − 4W
Aug 13at MIA13 − 1W
Aug 12at MIA2 − 8L
Aug 11at MIA0 − 2L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W
Aug 19at COL6 − 4W
Aug 18at COL7 − 6W
Aug 17at COL11 − 5W
Aug 16vs MIL2 − 6L
Aug 15vs MIL1 − 4L
Aug 14vs MIL3 − 1W
Aug 13vs MIL4 − 5L
Aug 12vs KC4 − 2W
Aug 11vs KC5 − 4W