bayesRatings

Red Sox at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 6:15 PM CT · PNC Park · Final BOS 4 – PIT 0
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS010000003490
PIT000000000061
Team box
BOS·PIT
9
hits
6
1
home runs
0
4
walks
1
11
strikeouts
10
112
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS3-4111
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-4102
Jahmai JonesBOS1-2001
Jake MangumPIT2-3000
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT2-4000
Jarren DuranBOS1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS7.06017
Jared Jones (L)PIT5.04127

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · BOS 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 53%, PIT 47% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.8 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
9.1
Red SoxThe matchupPirates
−111Our fair odds+111
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.17Power rating−0.01
4.4Runs / game5.0
3.8Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game8.9
1.00Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
65−57Season record60−64
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · PIT chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11153%−12655.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11147%+10149.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byPIT wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.69 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·PIT
Aug 14 at PIT
last game
Aug 14 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
BOS·PIT
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.4
runs / game
5.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
65−57
season record
60−64
29−31
home record
31−30
36−26
away record
29−34
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.49
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

BOS · PIT · 140 days
Boston Red SoxPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Aug 14at PITPIT 8 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at BOSPIT 10 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at BOSPIT 4 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at PITBOS 6 − 1
Apr 20, 2024at PITBOS 4 − 2
Apr 19, 2024at PITBOS 8 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at BOSPIT 4 − 1
Apr 4, 2023at BOSPIT 4 − 1
Apr 3, 2023at BOSPIT 7 − 6

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 14at PIT4 − 8L
Aug 13at TOR7 − 0W
Aug 12at TOR4 − 6L
Aug 11at TOR3 − 5L
Aug 10at TOR1 − 2L
Aug 9vs ATH3 − 4L
Aug 8vs ATH3 − 7L
Aug 7vs ATH13 − 1W
Aug 6vs CHW12 − 11W
Aug 5vs CHW4 − 0W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 14vs BOS8 − 4W
Aug 13at MIA13 − 1W
Aug 12at MIA2 − 8L
Aug 11at MIA0 − 2L
Aug 9vs NYM1 − 11L
Aug 8vs NYM9 − 0W
Aug 7vs NYM4 − 6L
Aug 6at MIL2 − 5L
Aug 5at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 4at MIL2 − 4L