bayesRatings

Red Sox at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final BOS 3 – PIT 8
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000030000351
PIT205000108110
Team box
BOS·PIT
5
hits
11
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
13
strikeouts
7
141
pitches thrown
139
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Connor WongBOS2-3113
Nick YorkePIT2-4003
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-3202
Brandon LowePIT2-4102
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT2-4200
Anthony SeiglerBOS1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick Sandoval (L)BOS4.09736
Lake BacharPIT3.02014
Kirby Yates (W)PIT1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +7
BOS +7
123456789
largest lead: PIT 7 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 53%, PIT 47% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.8 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
9.0
Red SoxThe matchupPirates
−114Our fair odds+114
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.18Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game5.0
3.7Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game8.8
1.00Home runs / game1.21
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
66−57Season record60−65
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · PIT chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11453%−11653.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11447%−10350.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 17%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byPIT wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PITLake Bachar RP · last 3 starts: 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·PIT
Aug 15 at PIT
last game
Aug 15 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
BOS·PIT
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
5.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
66−57
season record
60−65
29−31
home record
31−31
37−26
away record
29−34
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.21
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.49
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

BOS · PIT · 141 days
Boston Red SoxPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Aug 15at PITBOS 4 − 0
Aug 14at PITPIT 8 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at BOSPIT 10 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at BOSPIT 4 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at PITBOS 6 − 1
Apr 20, 2024at PITBOS 4 − 2
Apr 19, 2024at PITBOS 8 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at BOSPIT 4 − 1
Apr 4, 2023at BOSPIT 4 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 15at PIT4 − 0W
Aug 14at PIT4 − 8L
Aug 13at TOR7 − 0W
Aug 12at TOR4 − 6L
Aug 11at TOR3 − 5L
Aug 10at TOR1 − 2L
Aug 9vs ATH3 − 4L
Aug 8vs ATH3 − 7L
Aug 7vs ATH13 − 1W
Aug 6vs CHW12 − 11W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 15vs BOS0 − 4L
Aug 14vs BOS8 − 4W
Aug 13at MIA13 − 1W
Aug 12at MIA2 − 8L
Aug 11at MIA0 − 2L
Aug 9vs NYM1 − 11L
Aug 8vs NYM9 − 0W
Aug 7vs NYM4 − 6L
Aug 6at MIL2 − 5L
Aug 5at MIL2 − 4L