bayesRatings

Pirates at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final PIT 0 – LAD 4
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000000020
LAD10021000460
Team box
PIT·LAD
2
hits
6
0
home runs
0
4
walks
4
10
strikeouts
6
137
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4100
Alek ThomasLAD1-3001
Hunter FeducciaLAD1-3001
Mookie BettsLAD1-4000
Max MuncyLAD0-3001
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lake Bachar (L)PIT2.01131
Blake Snell (W)LAD6.02036

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 4.0 PIT
Expected total
9.0
PiratesThe matchupDodgers
+147Our fair odds−147
4.0Expected runs5.0
−0.01Power rating+0.30
5.0Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game3.9
8.8Hits / game8.7
1.19Home runs / game1.28
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
63−68Season record79−51
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+14741%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14759%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITLake Bachar RP · last 3 starts: 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·LAD
Aug 22 at LAD
last game
Aug 22 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
PIT·LAD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
5.0
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
63−68
season record
79−51
34−32
home record
39−26
29−36
away record
40−25
L2
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.8
hits / game
8.7
1.19
home runs / game
1.28
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.63
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

PIT · LAD · 148 days
Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Aug 22at LADLAD 4 − 3
Aug 21at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jun 11at PITLAD 8 − 6
Jun 10at PITPIT 9 − 8
Jun 9at PITLAD 12 − 3
Sep 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 7
Apr 27, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 22at LAD3 − 4L
Aug 21at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 19vs DET4 − 3W
Aug 18vs DET4 − 1W
Aug 17vs DET5 − 8L
Aug 16vs BOS8 − 3W
Aug 15vs BOS0 − 4L
Aug 14vs BOS8 − 4W
Aug 13at MIA13 − 1W
Aug 12at MIA2 − 8L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W
Aug 19at COL6 − 4W
Aug 18at COL7 − 6W
Aug 17at COL11 − 5W
Aug 16vs MIL2 − 6L
Aug 15vs MIL1 − 4L
Aug 14vs MIL3 − 1W
Aug 13vs MIL4 − 5L
Aug 12vs KC4 − 2W