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Braves at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final ATL 1 – MIL 4
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL100000000171
MIL00310000480
Team box
ATL·MIL
7
hits
8
0
home runs
1
3
walks
3
6
strikeouts
5
155
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-3112
Michael Harris IIATL2-4001
William ContrerasMIL2-4101
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4000
Mauricio DubonATL2-4000
Luis LaraMIL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (L)ATL4.04132
Logan Henderson (W)MIL6.05124
Aaron Ashby (S)MIL1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 3 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
MIL by 0.7
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 3.9 ATL
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupBrewers
+134Our fair odds−134
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.15Power rating+0.36
4.7Runs / game5.0
3.9Allowed / game3.8
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.29Home runs / game0.92
2.9Walks drawn / game4.2
75−54Season record80−49
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+13443%+13442.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13457%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 8 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIL
Aug 21 at MIL
last game
Aug 21 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
ATL·MIL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
4.7
runs / game
5.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
75−54
season record
80−49
42−23
home record
44−23
33−31
away record
36−26
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.29
home runs / game
0.92
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.45
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATL · MIL · 147 days
Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Aug 21at MILMIL 2 − 1
Jun 21at ATLMIL 9 − 4
Jun 20at ATLATL 4 − 3
Jun 19at ATLATL 3 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at ATLMIL 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at ATLMIL 7 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at ATLMIL 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at MILATL 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at MILATL 7 − 1

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 21at MIL1 − 2L
Aug 20at CHW2 − 0W
Aug 19at MIN4 − 6L
Aug 18at MIN1 − 4L
Aug 17at MIN2 − 4L
Aug 16vs ARI5 − 3W
Aug 15vs ARI3 − 10L
Aug 14vs ARI0 − 2L
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 21vs ATL2 − 1W
Aug 20vs SEA7 − 4W
Aug 19vs SEA5 − 7L
Aug 18vs SEA22 − 0W
Aug 16at LAD6 − 2W
Aug 15at LAD4 − 1W
Aug 14at LAD1 − 3L
Aug 13at LAD5 − 4W
Aug 12at SD3 − 4L
Aug 11at SD2 − 11L