bayesRatings

Mariners at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final SEA 0 – MIL 22
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000000000054
MIL1000552922220
Team box
SEA·MIL
5
hits
22
0
home runs
4
4
walks
5
10
strikeouts
6
197
pitches thrown
141
4
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
David HamiltonMIL3-5214
Luis LaraMIL3-6214
Christian YelichMIL2-5214
Jake BauersMIL2-3312
William ContrerasMIL2-4202
Garrett MitchellMIL4-6200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Miller (L)SEA4.27523
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL5.02028

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +22
SEA +22
123456789
largest lead: MIL 22 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 40%, MIL 60% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 4.7 – 3.5 SEA
Expected total
8.2
MarinersThe matchupBrewers
+150Our fair odds−150
3.5Expected runs4.7
−0.03Power rating+0.32
3.9Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.16Home runs / game0.90
3.3Walks drawn / game4.2
59−66Season record77−48
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+15040%+14640.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−15060%−17563.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.2
SEASeattle Mariners+1.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more46%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more35%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·MIL
Aug 16 at HOU
last game
Aug 16 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
SEA·MIL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
3.9
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
59−66
season record
77−48
33−29
home record
41−22
26−37
away record
36−26
W2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.16
home runs / game
0.90
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.48
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

SEA · MIL · 143 days
Seattle MarinersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 7−2
Jul 23, 2025at SEAMIL 10 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at SEAMIL 6 − 0
Apr 7, 2024at MILMIL 12 − 4
Apr 6, 2024at MILSEA 5 − 3
Apr 5, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 5
Apr 19, 2023at SEAMIL 5 − 3
Apr 18, 2023at SEAMIL 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2023at SEAMIL 7 − 3

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 16at HOU3 − 2W
Aug 15at HOU10 − 5W
Aug 14at HOU7 − 10L
Aug 13at NYY1 − 0W
Aug 12at NYY5 − 10L
Aug 11at NYY1 − 4L
Aug 9vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L
Aug 7vs TB1 − 2L
Aug 6vs DET0 − 11L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 16at LAD6 − 2W
Aug 15at LAD4 − 1W
Aug 14at LAD1 − 3L
Aug 13at LAD5 − 4W
Aug 12at SD3 − 4L
Aug 11at SD2 − 11L
Aug 10at SD2 − 3L
Aug 9vs MIN4 − 3W
Aug 8vs MIN4 − 3W
Aug 7vs MIN6 − 8L