bayesRatings

Mariners at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final SEA 1 – NYY 4
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000001000130
NYY00000040480
Team box
SEA·NYY
3
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
166
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY2-4002
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-4111
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3102
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2-4100
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-3100
Austin WellsNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan WooSEA5.03015
Michael Rucker (L)SEA0.13411
Ryan WeathersNYY5.22134
Tim Hill (W)NYY1.10000
David Bednar (S)NYY1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 3 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 43%, NYY 57% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.7 SEA
Expected total
8.2
MarinersThe matchupYankees
+131Our fair odds−131
3.7Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating+0.18
3.9Runs / game4.5
4.0Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game7.6
1.15Home runs / game1.42
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
56−63Season record66−52
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+13143%+11446.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13157%−13757.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
SEASeattle Mariners+0.8our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.48 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·NYY
Aug 9 vs TB
last game
Aug 9 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
SEA·NYY
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
3.9
runs / game
4.5
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−63
season record
66−52
33−29
home record
29−26
23−34
away record
37−26
L4
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
7.6
1.15
home runs / game
1.42
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.50
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SEA · NYY · 136 days
Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 7−3
Apr 1at SEANYY 5 − 3
Mar 31at SEANYY 5 − 0
Mar 30at SEASEA 2 − 1
Jul 10, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6
Jul 8, 2025at NYYNYY 10 − 3
May 14, 2025at SEANYY 3 − 2
May 13, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at SEANYY 11 − 5
Sep 19, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Aug 9vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L
Aug 7vs TB1 − 2L
Aug 6vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 5vs DET4 − 2W
Aug 4vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 2vs MIN7 − 6W
Aug 1vs MIN4 − 3W
Jul 31vs MIN3 − 5L
Jul 30at LAD2 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W
Aug 7vs ATL3 − 2W
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L
Aug 4vs STL2 − 0W
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W
Aug 1at CHC2 − 5L
Jul 31at CHC2 − 0W
Jul 30at CHW1 − 2L