bayesRatings

Mariners at Astros

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 6:20 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final SEA 3 – HOU 2
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA101001000380
HOU000101000270
Team box
SEA·HOU
8
hits
7
2
home runs
2
7
walks
2
8
strikeouts
9
128
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-5111
Nick AllenHOU1-2111
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4111
Cal RaleighSEA1-3111
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4001
Jose AltuveHOU1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (W)SEA6.03215
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00012
Hunter Brown (L)HOU5.03255

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · SEA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.5 – 4.3 SEA
Expected total
8.8
MarinersThe matchupAstros
+110Our fair odds−110
4.3Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.00
3.9Runs / game4.6
4.1Allowed / game4.9
7.6Hits / game8.2
1.15Home runs / game1.34
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
58−66Season record63−61
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11048%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11052%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more27%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 18 Kstarted
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·HOU
Aug 15 at HOU
last game
Aug 15 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
SEA·HOU
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
3.9
runs / game
4.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.9
58−66
season record
63−61
33−29
home record
31−30
25−37
away record
32−31
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.2
1.15
home runs / game
1.34
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.48
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SEA · HOU · 141 days
Seattle MarinersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 2−8
Aug 15at HOUSEA 10 − 5
Aug 14at HOUHOU 10 − 7
May 14at HOUSEA 8 − 3
May 13at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 12at HOUSEA 10 − 2
May 11at HOUSEA 3 − 1
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 15at HOU10 − 5W
Aug 14at HOU7 − 10L
Aug 13at NYY1 − 0W
Aug 12at NYY5 − 10L
Aug 11at NYY1 − 4L
Aug 9vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L
Aug 7vs TB1 − 2L
Aug 6vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 5vs DET4 − 2W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 15vs SEA5 − 10L
Aug 14vs SEA10 − 7W
Aug 12at SF2 − 1W
Aug 11at SF1 − 4L
Aug 10at SF6 − 3W
Aug 9at SD2 − 7L
Aug 8at SD2 − 3L
Aug 7at SD6 − 3W
Aug 5vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 4vs TOR7 − 2W