bayesRatings

Mariners at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, Aug 13 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final SEA 1 – NYY 0
← MLB / Aug 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA010000000151
NYY000000000040
Team box
SEA·NYY
5
hits
4
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
141
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Weston WilsonSEA1-2111
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2-4000
Trent GrishamNYY1-4000
Ali SanchezNYY1-2000
Josh NaylorSEA1-4000
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Gilbert (W)SEA6.04017
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00002
Max Fried (L)NYY5.05124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · SEA 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 42%, NYY 58% · Updated Aug 13

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.6 – 3.6 SEA
Expected total
8.2
MarinersThe matchupYankees
+137Our fair odds−137
3.6Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating+0.20
3.9Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game3.8
7.5Hits / game7.7
1.17Home runs / game1.41
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
56−65Season record68−52
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+13742%+13442.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13758%−16862.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
SEASeattle Mariners+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·NYY
Aug 12 at NYY
last game
Aug 12 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
SEA·NYY
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.9
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−65
season record
68−52
33−29
home record
31−26
23−36
away record
37−26
L6
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
7.7
1.17
home runs / game
1.41
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.49
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SEA · NYY · 138 days
Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Aug 12at NYYNYY 10 − 5
Aug 11at NYYNYY 4 − 1
Apr 1at SEANYY 5 − 3
Mar 31at SEANYY 5 − 0
Mar 30at SEASEA 2 − 1
Jul 10, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6
Jul 8, 2025at NYYNYY 10 − 3
May 14, 2025at SEANYY 3 − 2
May 13, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Aug 12at NYY5 − 10L
Aug 11at NYY1 − 4L
Aug 9vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L
Aug 7vs TB1 − 2L
Aug 6vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 5vs DET4 − 2W
Aug 4vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 2vs MIN7 − 6W
Aug 1vs MIN4 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W
Aug 7vs ATL3 − 2W
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L
Aug 4vs STL2 − 0W
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W
Aug 1at CHC2 − 5L