bayesRatings

Mariners at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 6:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final SEA 10 – HOU 5
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA04010002310150
HOU110000021582
Team box
SEA·HOU
15
hits
8
1
home runs
2
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
8
122
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA3-5314
Isaac ParedesHOU3-4112
Brendan DonovanSEA3-5003
Victor RoblesSEA2-4202
Christian VazquezHOU1-2111
Jose AltuveHOU2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson Hancock (W)SEA7.05228
Hayden Wesneski (L)HOU4.07516

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
SEA +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 1 · SEA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 47%, HOU 53% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.6 – 4.2 SEA
Expected total
8.8
MarinersThe matchupAstros
+112Our fair odds−112
4.2Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating+0.00
3.9Runs / game4.6
4.1Allowed / game4.8
7.5Hits / game8.2
1.15Home runs / game1.33
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
57−66Season record63−60
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11247%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11253%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.3our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 14 Kstarted
HOUHayden Wesneski SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·HOU
Aug 14 at HOU
last game
Aug 14 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
SEA·HOU
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
3.9
runs / game
4.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
57−66
season record
63−60
33−29
home record
31−29
24−37
away record
32−31
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.2
1.15
home runs / game
1.33
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.49
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

SEA · HOU · 140 days
Seattle MarinersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 2−8
Aug 14at HOUHOU 10 − 7
May 14at HOUSEA 8 − 3
May 13at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 12at HOUSEA 10 − 2
May 11at HOUSEA 3 − 1
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3

SEA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Aug 14at HOU7 − 10L
Aug 13at NYY1 − 0W
Aug 12at NYY5 − 10L
Aug 11at NYY1 − 4L
Aug 9vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L
Aug 7vs TB1 − 2L
Aug 6vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 5vs DET4 − 2W
Aug 4vs DET0 − 8L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 14vs SEA10 − 7W
Aug 12at SF2 − 1W
Aug 11at SF1 − 4L
Aug 10at SF6 − 3W
Aug 9at SD2 − 7L
Aug 8at SD2 − 3L
Aug 7at SD6 − 3W
Aug 5vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 4vs TOR7 − 2W
Aug 3vs TOR1 − 3L