bayesRatings

Mariners at Brewers

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final SEA 4 – MIL 7
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA020200000460
MIL600000017110
Team box
SEA·MIL
6
hits
11
0
home runs
1
6
walks
3
13
strikeouts
9
163
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Garrett MitchellMIL3-4213
Brendan DonovanSEA2-4002
Gary SanchezMIL1-4102
David HamiltonMIL2-4001
Joey OrtizMIL1-4101
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Kirby (L)SEA3.19623
Robert GasserMIL3.24444
Chad Patrick (W)MIL2.12004
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
SEA +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 6 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 39%, MIL 61% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
MIL by 1.5
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.5 SEA
Expected total
8.5
MarinersThe matchupBrewers
+157Our fair odds−157
3.5Expected runs5.0
−0.04Power rating+0.34
3.9Runs / game5.0
4.2Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game8.5
1.14Home runs / game0.93
3.3Walks drawn / game4.2
60−67Season record78−49
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair39.0%61.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+15739%+11945.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−15761%−14859.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.5
SEASeattle Mariners+1.5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 expected
Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 7 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·MIL
Aug 19 at MIL
last game
Aug 19 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
SEA·MIL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
3.9
runs / game
5.0
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
60−67
season record
78−49
33−29
home record
42−23
27−38
away record
36−26
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.5
1.14
home runs / game
0.93
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.52
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SEA · MIL · 145 days
Seattle MarinersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Aug 19at MILSEA 7 − 5
Aug 18at MILMIL 22 − 0
Jul 23, 2025at SEAMIL 10 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at SEAMIL 6 − 0
Apr 7, 2024at MILMIL 12 − 4
Apr 6, 2024at MILSEA 5 − 3
Apr 5, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 5
Apr 19, 2023at SEAMIL 5 − 3
Apr 18, 2023at SEAMIL 6 − 5

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 19at MIL7 − 5W
Aug 18at MIL0 − 22L
Aug 16at HOU3 − 2W
Aug 15at HOU10 − 5W
Aug 14at HOU7 − 10L
Aug 13at NYY1 − 0W
Aug 12at NYY5 − 10L
Aug 11at NYY1 − 4L
Aug 9vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 19vs SEA5 − 7L
Aug 18vs SEA22 − 0W
Aug 16at LAD6 − 2W
Aug 15at LAD4 − 1W
Aug 14at LAD1 − 3L
Aug 13at LAD5 − 4W
Aug 12at SD3 − 4L
Aug 11at SD2 − 11L
Aug 10at SD2 − 3L
Aug 9vs MIN4 − 3W