bayesRatings

Braves at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 3:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final ATL 1 – MIL 2
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000010180
MIL00200000291
Team box
ATL·MIL
8
hits
9
0
home runs
0
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
9
126
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL4-4001
Michael Harris IIATL2-4001
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-2000
Mauricio DubonATL2-4000
Andrew VaughnMIL1-3001
Luis LaraMIL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (L)ATL6.08206
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL6.04026
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 3.9 ATL
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupBrewers
+131Our fair odds−131
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.14Power rating+0.35
4.8Runs / game5.0
3.9Allowed / game3.8
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.30Home runs / game0.93
2.9Walks drawn / game4.2
75−53Season record79−49
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+13143%+11945.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13157%−14258.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more40%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more30%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 26 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIL
Aug 20 at CHW
last game
Aug 20 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
ATL·MIL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
4.8
runs / game
5.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
75−53
season record
79−49
42−23
home record
43−23
33−30
away record
36−26
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.30
home runs / game
0.93
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.45
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATL · MIL · 146 days
Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jun 21at ATLMIL 9 − 4
Jun 20at ATLATL 4 − 3
Jun 19at ATLATL 3 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at ATLMIL 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at ATLMIL 7 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at ATLMIL 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at MILATL 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at MILATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at ATLMIL 16 − 7

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 20at CHW2 − 0W
Aug 19at MIN4 − 6L
Aug 18at MIN1 − 4L
Aug 17at MIN2 − 4L
Aug 16vs ARI5 − 3W
Aug 15vs ARI3 − 10L
Aug 14vs ARI0 − 2L
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 20vs SEA7 − 4W
Aug 19vs SEA5 − 7L
Aug 18vs SEA22 − 0W
Aug 16at LAD6 − 2W
Aug 15at LAD4 − 1W
Aug 14at LAD1 − 3L
Aug 13at LAD5 − 4W
Aug 12at SD3 − 4L
Aug 11at SD2 − 11L
Aug 10at SD2 − 3L