bayesRatings

Rockies at Nationals

MLB · Thursday, Aug 27 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final COL 1 – WSH 7
← MLB / Aug 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL001000000150
WSH200110037130
Team box
COL·WSH
5
hits
13
0
home runs
2
9
walks
6
10
strikeouts
6
153
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH3-4212
Keibert RuizWSH2-5112
Dylan CrewsWSH2-5101
Brady HouseWSH1-3102
Brett SullivanCOL1-2001
Jacob YoungWSH2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gabriel Hughes (L)COL5.07443
Jake IrvinWSH4.13166
Tom Cosgrove (W)WSH1.20012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 6 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 40%, WSH 60% · Updated Aug 27

Expected margin
WSH by 0.6
Expected score
WSH 6.1 – 5.5 COL
Expected total
11.7
RockiesThe matchupNationals
+150Our fair odds−150
5.5Expected runs6.1
−0.45Power rating−0.12
4.8Runs / game5.2
5.8Allowed / game5.1
8.6Hits / game8.5
1.14Home runs / game1.38
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
52−81Season record62−73
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15040%+11945.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−15060%−14859.7%———
SpreadWSH by 0.6
COLColorado Rockies+0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.7
Over11.7our total————
Under11.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 0.6 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more42%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more34%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 4%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 6%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.561%
Total over 11.546%
Total over 13.532%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 11.77 ERA, 7 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.63 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·WSH
Aug 26 at WSH
last game
Aug 26 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
COL·WSH
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.8
runs / game
5.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
52−81
season record
62−73
27−38
home record
28−38
25−43
away record
34−35
W2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.6
hits / game
8.5
1.14
home runs / game
1.38
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.65
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

COL · WSH · 152 days
Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Aug 26at WSHCOL 13 − 1
Aug 25at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Aug 24at WSHWSH 13 − 3
Jul 22at COLWSH 8 − 0
Jul 21at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jul 20at COLWSH 7 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at WSHCOL 10 − 6
Jun 16, 2025at WSHCOL 6 − 4

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 26at WSH13 − 1W
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W
Aug 24at WSH3 − 13L
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L
Aug 19vs LAD4 − 6L
Aug 18vs LAD6 − 7L
Aug 17vs LAD5 − 11L
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L
Aug 21at MIA2 − 3L
Aug 20at TEX0 − 2L
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L