bayesRatings

Phillies at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final PHI 5 – LAA 2
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI0010001215100
LAA100000001280
Team box
PHI·LAA
10
hits
8
2
home runs
0
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
9
156
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3211
Edmundo SosaPHI1-3111
Bryce HarperPHI2-5001
Mike TroutLAA1-4001
Oswald PerazaLAA2-3000
Wade MecklerLAA2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI6.04136
Orion Kerkering (S)PHI1.12101
Yusei Kikuchi (L)LAA7.06216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · PHI 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 60%, LAA 40% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
PHI by 1.1
Expected score
PHI 4.9 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.7
PhilliesThe matchupAngels
−148Our fair odds+148
4.9Expected runs3.8
+0.16Power rating−0.31
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game7.8
1.19Home runs / game0.98
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
76−60Season record52−84
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · LAA chance
Our model fair59.6%40.4%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−14860%−17563.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+14840%+14640.7%———
SpreadPHI by 1.1
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.1 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byLAA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more45%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·LAA
Aug 29 at LAA
last game
Aug 29 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 136+ games
PHI·LAA
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
76−60
season record
52−84
38−30
home record
29−41
38−30
away record
23−43
W3
streak
L6
8−2
last 10
2−8
8.1
hits / game
7.8
1.19
home runs / game
0.98
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.51
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

PHI · LAA · 155 days
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Aug 29at LAAPHI 4 − 2
Aug 28at LAAPHI 5 − 3
Jul 20, 2025at PHILAA 8 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 5
Jul 18, 2025at PHILAA 6 − 5
May 1, 2024at LAAPHI 2 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at LAAPHI 7 − 5
Apr 29, 2024at LAALAA 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2023at PHILAA 10 − 8
Aug 29, 2023at PHIPHI 12 − 7

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Aug 29at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 28at LAA5 − 3W
Aug 26at SEA6 − 0W
Aug 25at SEA1 − 4L
Aug 24at SEA2 − 9L
Aug 23vs STL6 − 4W
Aug 22vs STL12 − 3W
Aug 21vs STL7 − 6W
Aug 19vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 18vs MIA6 − 4W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Aug 29vs PHI2 − 4L
Aug 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Aug 26vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 25vs CLE6 − 8L
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L
Aug 22at TEX3 − 0W
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L