bayesRatings

Angels at Rangers

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 7:15 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final LAA 1 – TEX 2
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
LAA0000000001131
TEX00000000022110
Team box
LAA·TEX
3
hits
11
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
14
strikeouts
10
150
pitches thrown
174
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel DuranTEX4-5000
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4001
Corey SeagerTEX2-5000
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-5101
Evan CarterTEX2-4100
Jose SiriLAA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid DetmersLAA6.06015
Ben Joyce (L)LAA0.22011
MacKenzie GoreTEX6.02017
Tyler Alexander (W)TEX1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
LAA +3
12345678910
largest lead: TEX 1 · LAA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 44%, TEX 56% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
TEX by 0.7
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 3.6 LAA
Expected total
8.0
AngelsThe matchupRangers
+130Our fair odds−130
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.26Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game8.0
1.00Home runs / game1.10
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
51−77Season record63−65
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13044%+11446.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−13056%−14258.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.7
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.7 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TEX
Aug 20 at HOU
last game
Aug 20 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
LAA·TEX
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
51−77
season record
63−65
29−36
home record
34−28
22−41
away record
29−37
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.0
1.00
home runs / game
1.10
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.59
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

LAA · TEX · 146 days
Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
Aug 13at LAALAA 7 − 0
Aug 12at LAALAA 5 − 2
Aug 11at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 10at LAATEX 4 − 1
Jul 9at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Jul 8at TEXLAA 13 − 1
Jul 7at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L
Aug 13vs TEX7 − 0W
Aug 12vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 11vs TEX3 − 2W
Aug 10vs TEX1 − 4L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 20vs WSH2 − 0W
Aug 19vs WSH0 − 6L
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 14at ATH3 − 8L
Aug 13at LAA0 − 7L
Aug 12at LAA2 − 5L
Aug 11at LAA2 − 3L
Aug 10at LAA4 − 1W