bayesRatings

Angels at Astros

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final LAA 18 – HOU 3
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA13064020218181
HOU200000001382
Team box
LAA·HOU
18
hits
8
2
home runs
0
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
9
134
pitches thrown
184
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA5-6217
Vaughn GrissomLAA3-6103
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-2112
Adam FrazierLAA2-5202
Moises BallesterosLAA2-6202
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson Rodriguez (W)LAA7.05026
Peter Lambert (L)HOU3.28923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +16
LAA +16
123456789
largest lead: HOU 1 · LAA 16lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, HOU 58% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
HOU by 0.9
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.9
AngelsThe matchupAstros
+140Our fair odds−140
4.0Expected runs4.9
−0.29Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.7Allowed / game4.8
7.8Hits / game8.1
0.99Home runs / game1.34
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
50−77Season record64−63
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14042%+15938.6%———
HOUHouston Astros−14058%−19165.6%———
SpreadHOU by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 11%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more43%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 19 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·HOU
Aug 19 at HOU
last game
Aug 19 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
LAA·HOU
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
50−77
season record
64−63
29−36
home record
32−32
21−41
away record
32−31
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.1
0.99
home runs / game
1.34
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.58
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

LAA · HOU · 145 days
Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
Aug 19at HOUHOU 3 − 2
Aug 18at HOULAA 3 − 1
Jul 29at LAAHOU 7 − 4
Jul 28at LAAHOU 3 − 2
Jul 27at LAAHOU 6 − 4
Jun 10at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 9at LAALAA 10 − 1
Jun 8at LAAHOU 5 − 4
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L
Aug 13vs TEX7 − 0W
Aug 12vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 11vs TEX3 − 2W
Aug 10vs TEX1 − 4L
Aug 9at MIA3 − 12L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 19vs LAA3 − 2W
Aug 18vs LAA1 − 3L
Aug 16vs SEA2 − 3L
Aug 15vs SEA5 − 10L
Aug 14vs SEA10 − 7W
Aug 12at SF2 − 1W
Aug 11at SF1 − 4L
Aug 10at SF6 − 3W
Aug 9at SD2 − 7L
Aug 8at SD2 − 3L