bayesRatings

Royals at Angels

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final KC 0 – LAA 1
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000000020
LAA00000001160
Team box
KC·LAA
2
hits
6
0
home runs
0
0
walks
3
13
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
105
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan SchanuelLAA3-3001
Adam FrazierLAA2-3000
Michael MasseyKC1-3000
Jac CaglianoneKC1-3000
Mike TroutLAA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy DobnakKC5.24026
Nate Pearson (L)KC1.01111
Reid Detmers (W)LAA8.020011
Ben Joyce (S)LAA1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 51%, LAA 49% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.0
RoyalsThe matchupAngels
−105Our fair odds+105
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.17Power rating−0.29
4.1Runs / game4.1
5.1Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game7.9
1.01Home runs / game1.02
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
50−73Season record48−75
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · LAA chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals−10551%+12943.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10549%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byLAA wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more37%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more27%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCRandy Dobnak SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·LAA
Aug 14 at LAA
last game
Aug 14 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
KC·LAA
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
4.1
runs / game
4.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
50−73
season record
48−75
29−30
home record
28−35
21−43
away record
20−40
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.9
1.01
home runs / game
1.02
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.46
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

KC · LAA · 140 days
Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Aug 14at LAAKC 7 − 6
Apr 26at KCKC 11 − 9
Apr 25at KCKC 12 − 1
Apr 24at KCKC 6 − 3
Sep 25, 2025at LAAKC 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at LAAKC 8 − 4
Sep 4, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at KCLAA 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at KCLAA 5 − 1

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 14at LAA7 − 6W
Aug 12at LAD2 − 4L
Aug 11at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 10at LAD5 − 6L
Aug 9vs CHC2 − 10L
Aug 8vs CHC6 − 3W
Aug 7vs CHC4 − 6L
Aug 6vs MIN3 − 4L
Aug 5vs MIN2 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIN8 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L
Aug 13vs TEX7 − 0W
Aug 12vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 11vs TEX3 − 2W
Aug 10vs TEX1 − 4L
Aug 9at MIA3 − 12L
Aug 8at MIA0 − 7L
Aug 7at MIA4 − 3W
Aug 6at BAL4 − 1W
Aug 5at BAL2 − 5L