bayesRatings

Angels at Astros

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final LAA 2 – HOU 3
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000200000250
HOU00120000351
Team box
LAA·HOU
5
hits
5
0
home runs
1
5
walks
2
11
strikeouts
12
147
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian VazquezHOU1-2111
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4002
Jose AltuveHOU1-4001
Josh LoweLAA2-2100
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4100
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert Urena (L)LAA5.03327
Ethan PeckoHOU3.23234
Bennett Sousa (W)HOU1.11001
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 1 · LAA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, HOU 58% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
HOU by 0.9
Expected score
HOU 5.0 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.0
AngelsThe matchupAstros
+139Our fair odds−139
4.0Expected runs5.0
−0.28Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.7Allowed / game4.8
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.00Home runs / game1.34
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
50−76Season record63−63
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13942%+12943.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−13958%−15460.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more44%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 14 Kstarted
HOUEthan Pecko SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·HOU
Aug 18 at HOU
last game
Aug 18 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
LAA·HOU
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
50−76
season record
63−63
29−36
home record
31−32
21−40
away record
32−31
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.00
home runs / game
1.34
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.59
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

LAA · HOU · 144 days
Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Aug 18at HOULAA 3 − 1
Jul 29at LAAHOU 7 − 4
Jul 28at LAAHOU 3 − 2
Jul 27at LAAHOU 6 − 4
Jun 10at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 9at LAALAA 10 − 1
Jun 8at LAAHOU 5 − 4
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L
Aug 13vs TEX7 − 0W
Aug 12vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 11vs TEX3 − 2W
Aug 10vs TEX1 − 4L
Aug 9at MIA3 − 12L
Aug 8at MIA0 − 7L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 18vs LAA1 − 3L
Aug 16vs SEA2 − 3L
Aug 15vs SEA5 − 10L
Aug 14vs SEA10 − 7W
Aug 12at SF2 − 1W
Aug 11at SF1 − 4L
Aug 10at SF6 − 3W
Aug 9at SD2 − 7L
Aug 8at SD2 − 3L
Aug 7at SD6 − 3W