bayesRatings

Angels at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 6:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final LAA 3 – TEX 0
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA1000010103100
TEX000000000010
Team box
LAA·TEX
10
hits
1
0
home runs
0
1
walks
3
8
strikeouts
4
109
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA2-4101
Zach NetoLAA3-5200
Moises BallesterosLAA2-4001
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4001
Adam FrazierLAA1-1000
Gustavo CamperoLAA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Johnson (W)LAA7.01023
Ryan Watson (S)LAA1.00001
Cody Bradford (L)TEX5.17203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · LAA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, TEX 57% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
TEX by 0.8
Expected score
TEX 4.4 – 3.6 LAA
Expected total
7.9
AngelsThe matchupRangers
+133Our fair odds−133
3.6Expected runs4.4
−0.27Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.0
0.99Home runs / game1.09
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
51−78Season record64−65
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13343%+14640.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−13357%−17563.6%———
SpreadTEX by 0.8
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.8 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more42%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TEXCody Bradford SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TEX
Aug 21 at TEX
last game
Aug 21 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
LAA·TEX
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
51−78
season record
64−65
29−36
home record
35−28
22−42
away record
29−37
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.0
0.99
home runs / game
1.09
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.59
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

LAA · TEX · 147 days
Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Aug 21at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 13at LAALAA 7 − 0
Aug 12at LAALAA 5 − 2
Aug 11at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 10at LAATEX 4 − 1
Jul 9at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Jul 8at TEXLAA 13 − 1
Jul 7at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L
Aug 13vs TEX7 − 0W
Aug 12vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 11vs TEX3 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 21vs LAA2 − 1W
Aug 20vs WSH2 − 0W
Aug 19vs WSH0 − 6L
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 14at ATH3 − 8L
Aug 13at LAA0 − 7L
Aug 12at LAA2 − 5L
Aug 11at LAA2 − 3L