bayesRatings

Cardinals at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 5:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final STL 3 – PHI 12
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000001011370
PHI3040040112151
Team box
STL·PHI
7
hits
15
1
home runs
2
0
walks
1
9
strikeouts
4
142
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI1-4113
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-3212
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4111
Edmundo SosaPHI2-4102
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3101
Bryan De La CruzPHI1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Quinn Mathews (L)STL5.010713
Andrew Painter (W)PHI7.05108

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +10
STL +10
123456789
largest lead: PHI 10 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.8
CardinalsThe matchupPhillies
+122Our fair odds−122
4.2Expected runs4.7
+0.01Power rating+0.14
4.4Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.20
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
66−64Season record71−58
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12245%+13442.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12255%−16161.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 2 starts: 9.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 10 Kstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·PHI
Aug 21 at PHI
last game
Aug 21 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
STL·PHI
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.4
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
66−64
season record
71−58
32−34
home record
36−30
34−30
away record
35−28
L1
streak
W7
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.20
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.9
0.42
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

STL · PHI · 147 days
St. Louis CardinalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Aug 21at PHIPHI 7 − 6
Aug 12at STLSTL 7 − 1
Aug 11at STLSTL 2 − 0
Aug 10at STLPHI 6 − 5
May 14, 2025at PHISTL 14 − 7
May 14, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at PHISTL 3 − 2
Apr 13, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at STLPHI 4 − 1
Apr 11, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 0

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 20at CIN10 − 9W
Aug 19at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 18at CIN3 − 0W
Aug 17at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 17at CIN2 − 1W
Aug 16at CHC11 − 4W
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Aug 21vs STL7 − 6W
Aug 19vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 18vs MIA6 − 4W
Aug 17vs MIA6 − 5W
Aug 16at MIN7 − 5W
Aug 15at MIN9 − 1W
Aug 13at MIN7 − 1W
Aug 12at STL1 − 7L
Aug 11at STL0 − 2L
Aug 10at STL6 − 5W