bayesRatings

Cardinals at Reds

MLB · Monday, Aug 17 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final STL 2 – CIN 1
← MLB / Aug 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL200000000270
CIN000100000130
Team box
STL·CIN
7
hits
3
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
15
157
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dane MyersCIN2-4111
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4002
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4000
Sal StewartCIN1-4000
Everson PereiraSTL1-4000
Masyn WinnSTL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Quinn MathewsSTL4.02137
Luis Gastelum (W)STL1.00002
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00003
Kent Emanuel (L)CIN5.05234

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · STL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 51%, CIN 49% · Updated Aug 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.4 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupReds
−103Our fair odds+103
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.8
8.0Hits / game7.5
1.04Home runs / game1.31
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
63−61Season record59−64
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10351%————
CINCincinnati Reds+10349%————
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCIN wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 1 start: 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3 Kstarted
CINKent Emanuel RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CIN
Aug 16 at CHC
last game
Aug 16 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
STL·CIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
63−61
season record
59−64
32−34
home record
30−33
31−27
away record
29−31
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.5
1.04
home runs / game
1.31
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.44
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

STL · CIN · 142 days
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jul 26at STLCIN 5 − 3
Jul 25at STLSTL 7 − 0
Jul 24at STLCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7at STLSTL 5 − 3
Jun 6at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Aug 16at CHC11 − 4W
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W
Aug 13at CHW9 − 8W
Aug 12at CHW0 − 5L
Aug 11at CHW5 − 4W
Aug 9at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 8at WSH2 − 8L
Aug 7at WSH3 − 5L
Aug 6vs ATH6 − 5W