bayesRatings

Cardinals at Reds

MLB · Monday, Aug 17 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final STL 5 – CIN 6
← MLB / Aug 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
STL00020201005110
CIN10000300116131
Team box
STL·CIN
11
hits
13
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
12
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eugenio SuarezCIN3-3101
Dane MyersCIN1-1111
Ivan HerreraSTL1-4111
JJ BledayCIN3-4100
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4101
Hector RodriguezCIN1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andre PallanteSTL6.010415
Justin Bruihl (L)STL0.01000
Rhett LowderCIN6.28425
Emilio Pagan (W)CIN1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
STL +3
12345678910
largest lead: CIN 1 · STL 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 51%, CIN 49% · Updated Aug 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.4 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupReds
−103Our fair odds+103
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.8
8.0Hits / game7.5
1.04Home runs / game1.31
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
63−61Season record59−64
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10351%————
CINCincinnati Reds+10349%————
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCIN wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CIN
Aug 17 at CIN
last game
Aug 17 vs STL
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
STL·CIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
63−61
season record
59−64
32−34
home record
30−33
31−27
away record
29−31
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.5
1.04
home runs / game
1.31
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.44
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

STL · CIN · 142 days
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jul 26at STLCIN 5 − 3
Jul 25at STLSTL 7 − 0
Jul 24at STLCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7at STLSTL 5 − 3
Jun 6at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Aug 16at CHC11 − 4W
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W
Aug 13at CHW9 − 8W
Aug 12at CHW0 − 5L
Aug 11at CHW5 − 4W
Aug 9at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 8at WSH2 − 8L
Aug 7at WSH3 − 5L
Aug 6vs ATH6 − 5W