bayesRatings

Cardinals at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final STL 3 – CIN 0
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000010110370
CIN000000000031
Team box
STL·CIN
7
hits
3
1
home runs
0
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masyn WinnSTL3-4211
Jose FerminSTL1-3001
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-3000
Dane MyersCIN1-3000
Sal StewartCIN1-4000
Pedro PagesSTL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.03006
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00001
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN6.14226

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · STL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 51%, CIN 49% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupReds
−102Our fair odds+102
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game7.5
1.03Home runs / game1.30
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
64−62Season record60−65
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10251%−12154.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10249%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCIN wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CIN
Aug 17 at CIN
last game
Aug 17 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
STL·CIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.8
64−62
season record
60−65
32−34
home record
31−34
32−28
away record
29−31
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.5
1.03
home runs / game
1.30
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.43
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

STL · CIN · 143 days
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Aug 17at CINCIN 6 − 5
Aug 17at CINSTL 2 − 1
Jul 26at STLCIN 5 − 3
Jul 25at STLSTL 7 − 0
Jul 24at STLCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7at STLSTL 5 − 3
Jun 6at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 17at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 17at CIN2 − 1W
Aug 16at CHC11 − 4W
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W
Aug 17vs STL1 − 2L
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W
Aug 13at CHW9 − 8W
Aug 12at CHW0 − 5L
Aug 11at CHW5 − 4W
Aug 9at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 8at WSH2 − 8L