bayesRatings

Cardinals at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final STL 4 – CIN 5
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000200002491
CIN00000302570
Team box
STL·CIN
9
hits
7
1
home runs
1
6
walks
2
12
strikeouts
12
141
pitches thrown
185
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN1-3113
Jordan WalkerSTL1-4112
Matt McLainCIN3-3200
Dane MyersCIN1-4001
Nathan ChurchSTL1-3101
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL6.04309
Chase BurnsCIN5.06228
Sam Moll (W)CIN1.01011
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.02200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 3 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 51%, CIN 49% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.3 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.4
CardinalsThe matchupReds
−103Our fair odds+103
4.3Expected runs4.1
+0.02Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.7
8.1Hits / game7.5
1.03Home runs / game1.29
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
65−62Season record60−66
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10351%+11945.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10349%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCIN wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CIN
Aug 18 at CIN
last game
Aug 18 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
STL·CIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.7
65−62
season record
60−66
32−34
home record
31−35
33−28
away record
29−31
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.5
1.03
home runs / game
1.29
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.43
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

STL · CIN · 144 days
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Aug 18at CINSTL 3 − 0
Aug 17at CINCIN 6 − 5
Aug 17at CINSTL 2 − 1
Jul 26at STLCIN 5 − 3
Jul 25at STLSTL 7 − 0
Jul 24at STLCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7at STLSTL 5 − 3
Jun 6at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 18at CIN3 − 0W
Aug 17at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 17at CIN2 − 1W
Aug 16at CHC11 − 4W
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W
Aug 17vs STL1 − 2L
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W
Aug 13at CHW9 − 8W
Aug 12at CHW0 − 5L
Aug 11at CHW5 − 4W
Aug 9at WSH1 − 7L