bayesRatings

Cardinals at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 12:35 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final STL 4 – PHI 6
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL1001101004100
PHI000000006690
Team box
STL·PHI
10
hits
9
1
home runs
1
1
walks
3
9
strikeouts
5
155
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edmundo SosaPHI2-4103
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-5112
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4002
Jose FerminSTL1-4111
Bryan De La CruzPHI2-4101
JJ WetherholtSTL2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle LeahySTL4.02024
Riley O'Brien (L)STL0.25610
Cristopher SanchezPHI6.29407
Alex McFarlane (W)PHI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: PHI 2 · STL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.9
CardinalsThe matchupPhillies
+126Our fair odds−126
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.00Power rating+0.16
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.21
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
66−65Season record72−58
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12644%+18135.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12656%−21868.5%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 20 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·PHI
Aug 22 at PHI
last game
Aug 22 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
11th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
STL·PHI
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
66−65
season record
72−58
32−34
home record
37−30
34−31
away record
35−28
L2
streak
W8
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.21
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.9
0.42
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

STL · PHI · 148 days
St. Louis CardinalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Aug 22at PHIPHI 12 − 3
Aug 21at PHIPHI 7 − 6
Aug 12at STLSTL 7 − 1
Aug 11at STLSTL 2 − 0
Aug 10at STLPHI 6 − 5
May 14, 2025at PHISTL 14 − 7
May 14, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at PHISTL 3 − 2
Apr 13, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at STLPHI 4 − 1

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 20at CIN10 − 9W
Aug 19at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 18at CIN3 − 0W
Aug 17at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 17at CIN2 − 1W
Aug 16at CHC11 − 4W
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Aug 22vs STL12 − 3W
Aug 21vs STL7 − 6W
Aug 19vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 18vs MIA6 − 4W
Aug 17vs MIA6 − 5W
Aug 16at MIN7 − 5W
Aug 15at MIN9 − 1W
Aug 13at MIN7 − 1W
Aug 12at STL1 − 7L
Aug 11at STL0 − 2L