bayesRatings

Guardians at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final CLE 8 – LAA 6
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CLE00032001028130
LAA2300100000691
Team box
CLE·LAA
13
hits
9
0
home runs
3
8
walks
2
13
strikeouts
15
195
pitches thrown
200
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE3-6005
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-5223
Steven KwanCLE5-5301
Christian MooreLAA1-4111
Brayan RocchioCLE1-5101
Travis BazzanaCLE1-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin WilliamsCLE1.16513
Erik Sabrowski (W)CLE1.00003
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00002
Walbert UrenaLAA3.25353
Blake Weiman (L)LAA1.02110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +5
CLE +5
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 5 · CLE 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.4 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.3
GuardiansThe matchupAngels
−122Our fair odds+122
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.00Power rating−0.27
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.6
7.8Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game0.98
3.6Walks drawn / game3.1
66−66Season record52−80
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−12255%−15460.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12245%+12943.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byLAA wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more38%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 23 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LAA
Aug 24 at LAA
last game
Aug 24 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
CLE·LAA
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.6
66−66
season record
52−80
31−34
home record
29−37
35−32
away record
23−43
W5
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
0.98
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.52
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CLE · LAA · 150 days
Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Aug 24at LAACLE 4 − 2
May 13at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 12at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 11at CLECLE 7 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 5
May 30, 2025at CLELAA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 2
Apr 5, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at LAACLE 8 − 6

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L
Aug 22at TEX3 − 0W
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L