bayesRatings

Guardians at Angels

MLB · Monday, Aug 24 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final CLE 4 – LAA 2
← MLB / Aug 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE001012000480
LAA000100001262
Team box
CLE·LAA
8
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
5
strikeouts
8
147
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin HedgesCLE1-4112
Jo AdellCLE1-3001
Steven KwanCLE2-5100
Josh LoweLAA2-2000
Moises BallesterosLAA1-4001
Jose RamirezCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (W)CLE6.03114
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.01101
George Klassen (L)LAA5.16233

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · CLE 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Aug 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.4 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupAngels
−120Our fair odds+120
4.4Expected runs4.0
−0.01Power rating−0.27
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.6
7.8Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game0.98
3.6Walks drawn / game3.1
65−66Season record52−79
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.6%45.4%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−12055%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12045%+14041.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byLAA wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 24 Kstarted
LAAGeorge Klassen SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LAA
Aug 23 at COL
last game
Aug 23 at TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 131+ games
CLE·LAA
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.6
65−66
season record
52−79
31−34
home record
29−36
34−32
away record
23−43
W4
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
0.98
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.52
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

CLE · LAA · 149 days
Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
May 13at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 12at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 11at CLECLE 7 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 5
May 30, 2025at CLELAA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 2
Apr 5, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at LAACLE 8 − 6
May 26, 2024at LAACLE 5 − 4

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L
Aug 13at DET0 − 3L

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L
Aug 22at TEX3 − 0W
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W
Aug 14vs KC6 − 7L
Aug 13vs TEX7 − 0W