bayesRatings

Phillies at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final PHI 1 – SEA 4
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI010000000160
SEA01000120450
Team box
PHI·SEA
6
hits
5
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
11
strikeouts
7
140
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cal RaleighSEA1-2111
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-3002
Bryce HarperPHI2-4000
Justin CrawfordPHI1-3001
Josh NaylorSEA1-4001
Luis ArraezPHI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (L)PHI6.03237
George Kirby (W)SEA7.26119
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 3 · PHI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, SEA 47% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 3.9 SEA
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupMariners
−112Our fair odds+112
4.5Expected runs3.9
+0.15Power rating−0.04
4.6Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game7.6
1.20Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
73−59Season record63−69
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SEA chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11253%−10350.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+11247%−11653.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySEA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 25 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SEA
Aug 24 at SEA
last game
Aug 24 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
PHI·SEA
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
73−59
season record
63−69
38−30
home record
36−30
35−29
away record
27−39
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
7.6
1.20
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.51
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

PHI · SEA · 150 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Aug 24at SEASEA 9 − 2
Aug 20, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at PHIPHI 12 − 7
Aug 4, 2024at SEAPHI 6 − 0
Aug 3, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 5
Aug 2, 2024at SEASEA 10 − 2
Apr 27, 2023at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Apr 26, 2023at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Apr 25, 2023at PHISEA 5 − 3

PHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Aug 24at SEA2 − 9L
Aug 23vs STL6 − 4W
Aug 22vs STL12 − 3W
Aug 21vs STL7 − 6W
Aug 19vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 18vs MIA6 − 4W
Aug 17vs MIA6 − 5W
Aug 16at MIN7 − 5W
Aug 15at MIN9 − 1W
Aug 13at MIN7 − 1W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 24vs PHI9 − 2W
Aug 23vs CHC2 − 19L
Aug 22vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 21vs CHC6 − 5W
Aug 20at MIL4 − 7L
Aug 19at MIL7 − 5W
Aug 18at MIL0 − 22L
Aug 16at HOU3 − 2W
Aug 15at HOU10 − 5W
Aug 14at HOU7 − 10L