bayesRatings

Guardians at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final CLE 4 – LAA 3
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE0000100124121
LAA120000000330
Team box
CLE·LAA
12
hits
3
0
home runs
0
3
walks
8
8
strikeouts
4
148
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Travis BazzanaCLE2-3102
Nathaniel LoweCLE2-3001
Steven KwanCLE2-5001
Jose RamirezCLE2-4000
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4200
Zach NetoLAA1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey CantilloCLE6.02271
Hunter Gaddis (W)CLE0.20011
Erik Sabrowski (S)CLE1.01001
Grayson RodriguezLAA5.27114
Ryan Watson (L)LAA1.03210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 3 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.4 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupAngels
−123Our fair odds+123
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.01Power rating−0.27
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.9Hits / game7.9
0.93Home runs / game0.99
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
67−66Season record52−81
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.1%44.9%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−12355%−14859.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12345%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byLAA wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 15 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LAA
Aug 25 at LAA
last game
Aug 25 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
CLE·LAA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
67−66
season record
52−81
31−34
home record
29−38
36−32
away record
23−43
W6
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
7.9
0.93
home runs / game
0.99
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.51
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CLE · LAA · 151 days
Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Aug 25at LAACLE 8 − 6
Aug 24at LAACLE 4 − 2
May 13at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 12at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 11at CLECLE 7 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 5
May 30, 2025at CLELAA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 2
Apr 5, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 4

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Aug 25at LAA8 − 6W
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 25vs CLE6 − 8L
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L
Aug 22at TEX3 − 0W
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W
Aug 19at HOU2 − 3L
Aug 18at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 16vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 15vs KC1 − 0W