bayesRatings

Braves at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final ATL 5 – WSH 9
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL011000030581
WSH041001219120
Team box
ATL·WSH
8
hits
12
2
home runs
1
1
walks
7
10
strikeouts
12
177
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yohandy MoralesWSH3-5211
Michael Harris IIATL1-4112
CJ AbramsWSH2-4102
Brady HouseWSH1-3003
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4111
Ha-Seong KimATL3-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
AJ Smith-Shawver (L)ATL4.06535
Jake IrvinWSH4.05215
Jared Simpson (W)WSH3.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
ATL +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 6 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, WSH 46% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 5.5 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.3
BravesThe matchupNationals
−118Our fair odds+118
5.5Expected runs4.8
+0.16Power rating−0.09
4.6Runs / game5.2
3.8Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.5
1.26Home runs / game1.37
2.9Walks drawn / game3.5
82−56Season record66−74
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11854%−14859.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11846%+12444.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLAJ Smith-Shawver SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Aug 31 vs SF
last game
Aug 31 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.6
runs / game
5.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
82−56
season record
66−74
48−24
home record
32−39
34−32
away record
34−35
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.5
1.26
home runs / game
1.37
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.43
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 157 days
Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Aug 2at ATLATL 4 − 2
Aug 1at ATLATL 8 − 3
Jul 31at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 30at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 24at ATLWSH 2 − 1
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 31vs SF3 − 7L
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W
Aug 27vs LAD1 − 0W
Aug 26vs LAD6 − 5W
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 23at MIL4 − 2W
Aug 22at MIL1 − 4L
Aug 21at MIL1 − 2L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L