bayesRatings

Marlins at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Aug 29 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIA 4 – WSH 5
← MLB / Aug 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIA0000004000461
WSH0040000001590
Team box
MIA·WSH
6
hits
9
1
home runs
0
5
walks
3
17
strikeouts
7
147
pitches thrown
160
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-5112
Kyle StowersMIA1-4102
Dylan CrewsWSH2-5101
Brady HouseWSH2-4101
Jorbit VivasWSH1-3001
Abimelec OrtizWSH2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy AlcantaraMIA6.08413
Michael Petersen (L)MIA0.21021
Cade CavalliWSH4.00038
Orlando Ribalta (W)WSH1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
MIA +4
12345678910
largest lead: WSH 4 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 50%, WSH 50% · Updated Aug 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 5.4 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
10.6
MarlinsThe matchupNationals
−101Our fair odds+101
5.4Expected runs5.2
−0.00Power rating−0.09
4.3Runs / game5.2
4.2Allowed / game5.1
8.3Hits / game8.5
1.00Home runs / game1.39
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
68−67Season record64−73
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins−10150%−11252.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10150%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 9 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
Aug 28 at WSH
last game
Aug 28 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
MIA·WSH
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.3
runs / game
5.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
68−67
season record
64−73
42−27
home record
30−38
26−40
away record
34−35
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.39
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.63
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 154 days
Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 2−8
Aug 28at WSHWSH 9 − 2
Aug 23at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 22at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Aug 21at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jun 3at WSHMIA 4 − 1
Jun 2at WSHMIA 7 − 3
Jun 1at WSHMIA 7 − 3
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 28at WSH2 − 9L
Aug 26vs BOS4 − 0W
Aug 25vs BOS3 − 7L
Aug 24vs BOS2 − 4L
Aug 23vs WSH6 − 2W
Aug 22vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 21vs WSH3 − 2W
Aug 19at PHI1 − 4L
Aug 18at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 17at PHI5 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L
Aug 21at MIA2 − 3L
Aug 20at TEX0 − 2L
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W