bayesRatings

Red Sox at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final BOS 0 – MIA 4
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000000054
MIA110000024100
Team box
BOS·MIA
5
hits
10
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
4
strikeouts
8
151
pitches thrown
120
4
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA3-4001
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4001
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4000
Otto LopezMIA2-4200
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-2000
Anthony SeiglerBOS1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (L)BOS5.07215
Ryan Gusto (W)MIA5.24032

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 4 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 54%, MIA 46% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
8.3
Red SoxThe matchupMarlins
−116Our fair odds+116
4.5Expected runs3.8
+0.22Power rating−0.00
4.5Runs / game4.3
3.8Allowed / game4.2
8.4Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game1.01
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
73−59Season record67−66
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIA chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11654%−13757.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+11646%+11446.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byMIA wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIA
Aug 25 at MIA
last game
Aug 25 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
BOS·MIA
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.5
runs / game
4.3
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
73−59
season record
67−66
34−32
home record
41−27
39−27
away record
26−39
W5
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
1.01
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.52
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BOS · MIA · 151 days
Boston Red SoxMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Aug 25at MIABOS 7 − 3
Aug 24at MIABOS 4 − 2
Aug 17, 2025at BOSMIA 5 − 3
Aug 16, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at MIABOS 6 − 5
Jul 3, 2024at MIABOS 7 − 2
Jul 2, 2024at MIABOS 8 − 3
Jun 29, 2023at BOSMIA 2 − 0
Jun 28, 2023at BOSMIA 6 − 2

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Aug 25at MIA7 − 3W
Aug 24at MIA4 − 2W
Aug 23vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 22vs SF3 − 2W
Aug 21vs SF6 − 4W
Aug 19vs ARI6 − 7L
Aug 18vs ARI9 − 4W
Aug 17vs ARI11 − 1W
Aug 16at PIT3 − 8L
Aug 15at PIT4 − 0W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 25vs BOS3 − 7L
Aug 24vs BOS2 − 4L
Aug 23vs WSH6 − 2W
Aug 22vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 21vs WSH3 − 2W
Aug 19at PHI1 − 4L
Aug 18at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 17at PHI5 − 6L
Aug 16at CIN7 − 1W
Aug 15at CIN8 − 4W