bayesRatings

Giants at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 6:15 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final SF 2 – BOS 3
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF101000000280
BOS000000003381
Team box
SF·BOS
8
hits
8
2
home runs
0
5
walks
5
10
strikeouts
9
154
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andrew KniznerSF3-4111
Willy AdamesSF2-4111
Nick SogardBOS2-3001
Eli WhiteBOS1-1101
Caleb DurbinBOS2-3100
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blade TidwellSF5.23027
Sam Hentges (L)SF0.12210
Patrick SandovalBOS5.25226
Wyatt Olds (W)BOS1.11021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 1 · SF 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 40%, BOS 60% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
BOS by 1.3
Expected score
BOS 4.9 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
8.4
GiantsThe matchupRed Sox
+152Our fair odds−152
3.6Expected runs4.9
−0.15Power rating+0.19
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.4
1.10Home runs / game1.03
2.6Walks drawn / game3.2
52−76Season record69−59
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · BOS chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+15240%+18135.6%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−15260%−21868.5%———
SpreadBOS by 1.3
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.3 expected
San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← SF wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more47%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more36%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·BOS
Aug 21 at BOS
last game
Aug 21 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
SF·BOS
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.8
52−76
season record
69−59
29−33
home record
32−32
23−43
away record
37−27
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.4
1.10
home runs / game
1.03
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.66
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

SF · BOS · 147 days
San Francisco GiantsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Aug 21at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at SFSF 9 − 5
Jun 21, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at SFBOS 7 − 5
May 2, 2024at BOSSF 3 − 1
May 1, 2024at BOSBOS 6 − 2
Apr 30, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2023at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 29, 2023at SFSF 3 − 2
Jul 28, 2023at SFBOS 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 21vs SF6 − 4W
Aug 19vs ARI6 − 7L
Aug 18vs ARI9 − 4W
Aug 17vs ARI11 − 1W
Aug 16at PIT3 − 8L
Aug 15at PIT4 − 0W
Aug 14at PIT4 − 8L
Aug 13at TOR7 − 0W
Aug 12at TOR4 − 6L
Aug 11at TOR3 − 5L