bayesRatings

Giants at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 2:15 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final SF 4 – BOS 5
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF210000100480
BOS011300005112
Team box
SF·BOS
8
hits
11
1
home runs
1
1
walks
1
7
strikeouts
5
138
pitches thrown
110
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS3-4002
Nick SogardBOS2-3211
Jonah CoxSF2-4111
Connor WongBOS2-3101
Bryce EldridgeSF2-4001
Jahmai JonesBOS2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matt Wilkinson (L)SF3.27402
Jake Bennett (W)BOS7.07316
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · SF 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 39%, BOS 61% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
BOS by 1.4
Expected score
BOS 4.9 – 3.5 SF
Expected total
8.4
GiantsThe matchupRed Sox
+154Our fair odds−154
3.5Expected runs4.9
−0.16Power rating+0.20
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.4
1.11Home runs / game1.02
2.7Walks drawn / game3.2
52−77Season record70−59
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · BOS chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+15439%+17336.6%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−15461%−20867.6%———
SpreadBOS by 1.4
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.4our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.4 expected
San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← SF wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more48%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFMatt Wilkinson SP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 Kstarted
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·BOS
Aug 22 at BOS
last game
Aug 22 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
SF·BOS
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.8
52−77
season record
70−59
29−33
home record
33−32
23−44
away record
37−27
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.4
1.11
home runs / game
1.02
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.65
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

SF · BOS · 148 days
San Francisco GiantsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Aug 22at BOSBOS 3 − 2
Aug 21at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at SFSF 9 − 5
Jun 21, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at SFBOS 7 − 5
May 2, 2024at BOSSF 3 − 1
May 1, 2024at BOSBOS 6 − 2
Apr 30, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2023at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 29, 2023at SFSF 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 22vs SF3 − 2W
Aug 21vs SF6 − 4W
Aug 19vs ARI6 − 7L
Aug 18vs ARI9 − 4W
Aug 17vs ARI11 − 1W
Aug 16at PIT3 − 8L
Aug 15at PIT4 − 0W
Aug 14at PIT4 − 8L
Aug 13at TOR7 − 0W
Aug 12at TOR4 − 6L