bayesRatings

Marlins at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIA 3 – WSH 6
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0003000003111
WSH000020406111
Team box
MIA·WSH
11
hits
11
0
home runs
2
2
walks
3
7
strikeouts
9
143
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH3-3224
Kyle StowersMIA2-4002
Brady HouseWSH2-4001
Jakob MarseeMIA2-4000
Javier SanojaMIA2-4100
Keibert RuizWSH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan GustoMIA4.14124
Josh Ekness (L)MIA0.13311
Will DionWSH3.02011
Matt Waldron (W)WSH3.05000
Erik Tolman (S)WSH2.00004

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · MIA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 51%, WSH 49% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 5.5 – 5.1 WSH
Expected total
10.6
MarlinsThe matchupNationals
−102Our fair odds+102
5.5Expected runs5.1
+0.00Power rating−0.10
4.3Runs / game5.2
4.2Allowed / game5.1
8.2Hits / game8.5
1.00Home runs / game1.37
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
69−68Season record65−74
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins−10251%−11252.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10249%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.3our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more40%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.26 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHWill Dion RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
Aug 30 at WSH
last game
Aug 30 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
MIA·WSH
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.3
runs / game
5.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
69−68
season record
65−74
42−27
home record
31−39
27−41
away record
34−35
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.37
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.64
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 156 days
Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 2−8
Aug 30at WSHMIA 6 − 2
Aug 29at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 28at WSHWSH 9 − 2
Aug 23at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 22at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Aug 21at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jun 3at WSHMIA 4 − 1
Jun 2at WSHMIA 7 − 3
Jun 1at WSHMIA 7 − 3
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 30at WSH6 − 2W
Aug 29at WSH4 − 5L
Aug 28at WSH2 − 9L
Aug 26vs BOS4 − 0W
Aug 25vs BOS3 − 7L
Aug 24vs BOS2 − 4L
Aug 23vs WSH6 − 2W
Aug 22vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 21vs WSH3 − 2W
Aug 19at PHI1 − 4L

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L
Aug 21at MIA2 − 3L