bayesRatings

Giants at Braves

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 5:05 PM CT · Truist Park · Final SF 7 – ATL 3
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF1000140017111
ATL110010000390
Team box
SF·ATL
11
hits
9
3
home runs
1
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
10
128
pitches thrown
132
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonah CoxSF2-5112
Michael Harris IIATL2-4111
Rafael DeversSF1-3211
Osleivis BasabeSF1-4111
Drake BaldwinATL2-4101
Bryce EldridgeSF2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Molina (W)SF5.06306
Bryce Elder (L)ATL5.18533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · SF 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 40%, ATL 60% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
8.3
GiantsThe matchupBraves
+149Our fair odds−149
3.6Expected runs4.7
−0.15Power rating+0.18
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.4
1.11Home runs / game1.26
2.7Walks drawn / game2.9
56−81Season record82−55
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATL chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+14940%+17336.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−14960%−20867.6%———
SpreadATL by 1.1
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.1 expected
San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← SF wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more45%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAnthony Molina SP · last 2 starts: 6.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 2 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.82 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATL
Aug 29 vs ARI
last game
Aug 30 vs COL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
SF·ATL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−81
season record
82−55
33−36
home record
48−23
23−45
away record
34−32
W1
streak
W7
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.4
hits / game
8.4
1.11
home runs / game
1.26
2.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.65
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SF · ATL · 156 days
San Francisco GiantsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 2−8
Jun 28at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 27at SFSF 5 − 0
Jun 26at SFATL 3 − 1
Jun 17at ATLSF 7 − 5
Jun 16at ATLSF 7 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at ATLATL 9 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W
Aug 27vs LAD1 − 0W
Aug 26vs LAD6 − 5W
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 23at MIL4 − 2W
Aug 22at MIL1 − 4L
Aug 21at MIL1 − 2L
Aug 20at CHW2 − 0W