bayesRatings

Reds at Giants

MLB · Monday, Aug 24 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final CIN 0 – SF 5
← MLB / Aug 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000000000050
SF230000005100
Team box
CIN·SF
5
hits
10
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
11
strikeouts
7
111
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-4213
Tyler StephensonCIN2-3000
Christian KossSF2-3100
Drew GilbertSF2-4200
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-4001
Turner HillSF1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Burns (L)CIN3.29515
Carson WhisenhuntSF2.22013
Jason Foley (W)SF1.10003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 5 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, SF 50% · Updated Aug 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.4 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.7
RedsThe matchupGiants
+100Our fair odds−100
4.2Expected runs4.4
−0.09Power rating−0.17
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game8.4
1.29Home runs / game1.11
3.6Walks drawn / game2.6
62−69Season record52−78
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · SF chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%−17563.6%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10050%+14640.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 22 Kstarted
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·SF
Aug 23 at ARI
last game
Aug 23 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
CIN·SF
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
62−69
season record
52−78
32−36
home record
29−33
30−33
away record
23−45
L1
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
8.4
1.29
home runs / game
1.11
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.55
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

CIN · SF · 149 days
Cincinnati RedsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Apr 16at CINSF 3 − 0
Apr 15at CINCIN 8 − 3
Apr 14at CINCIN 2 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at SFSF 8 − 6
Apr 8, 2025at SFCIN 1 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at SFCIN 2 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at CINSF 6 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Mar 27, 2025at CINSF 6 − 4
Aug 4, 2024at CINSF 8 − 2

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L
Aug 19vs STL5 − 4W
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W
Aug 17vs STL1 − 2L
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L