bayesRatings

Reds at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 3:15 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CIN 3 – ARI 5
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN003000000380
ARI00000140581
Team box
CIN·ARI
8
hits
8
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
118
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4102
Corbin CarrollARI2-3101
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-2002
Sal StewartCIN2-5101
Tim TawaARI2-4100
Dane MyersCIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN6.07426
Mitch BrattARI3.05333
Jonathan Loaisiga (W)ARI1.01001
Kevin Ginkel (S)ARI0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 2 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 45%, ARI 55% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
ARI by 0.6
Expected score
ARI 5.1 – 4.5 CIN
Expected total
9.7
RedsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+122Our fair odds−122
4.5Expected runs5.1
−0.08Power rating+0.04
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.8Allowed / game4.5
7.5Hits / game8.2
1.30Home runs / game0.99
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
62−68Season record68−62
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · ARI chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12245%+12444.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−12255%−14859.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.6
CINCincinnati Reds+0.6our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.6 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more42%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more32%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIMitch Bratt SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·ARI
Aug 22 at ARI
last game
Aug 22 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
CIN·ARI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
62−68
season record
68−62
32−36
home record
37−28
30−32
away record
31−34
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.2
1.30
home runs / game
0.99
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.55
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

CIN · ARI · 148 days
Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Aug 22at ARICIN 11 − 5
Aug 21at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jun 14at CINARI 5 − 3
Jun 13at CINCIN 2 − 1
Jun 12at CINARI 5 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at ARICIN 6 − 1
Aug 23, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CINCIN 13 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L
Aug 19vs STL5 − 4W
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W
Aug 17vs STL1 − 2L
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L
Aug 17at BOS1 − 11L
Aug 16at ATL3 − 5L
Aug 15at ATL10 − 3W
Aug 14at ATL2 − 0W
Aug 12vs COL4 − 6L
Aug 11vs COL2 − 3L