bayesRatings

Reds at Diamondbacks

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 7:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CIN 11 – ARI 5
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN10231121011161
ARI0001120105100
Team box
CIN·ARI
16
hits
10
4
home runs
2
5
walks
3
8
strikeouts
4
148
pitches thrown
177
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ BledayCIN4-6213
Elly De La CruzCIN4-6411
Tim TawaARI2-4112
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4003
Matt McLainCIN1-4112
Hector RodriguezCIN2-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (W)CIN6.06311
Michael Soroka (L)ARI3.16633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +7
CIN +7
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · CIN 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 44%, ARI 56% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
ARI by 0.8
Expected score
ARI 5.2 – 4.3 CIN
Expected total
9.5
RedsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+126Our fair odds−126
4.3Expected runs5.2
−0.10Power rating+0.06
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.8Allowed / game4.5
7.5Hits / game8.2
1.28Home runs / game0.98
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
61−68Season record68−61
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · ARI chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12644%+15938.6%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−12656%−19165.6%———
SpreadARI by 0.8
CINCincinnati Reds+0.8our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.8 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more43%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more33%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·ARI
Aug 21 at ARI
last game
Aug 21 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
CIN·ARI
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
61−68
season record
68−61
32−36
home record
37−27
29−32
away record
31−34
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.2
1.28
home runs / game
0.98
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.55
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

CIN · ARI · 147 days
Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Aug 21at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jun 14at CINARI 5 − 3
Jun 13at CINCIN 2 − 1
Jun 12at CINARI 5 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at ARICIN 6 − 1
Aug 23, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CINCIN 13 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L
Aug 19vs STL5 − 4W
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W
Aug 17vs STL1 − 2L
Aug 16vs MIA1 − 7L
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W
Aug 13at CHW9 − 8W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L
Aug 17at BOS1 − 11L
Aug 16at ATL3 − 5L
Aug 15at ATL10 − 3W
Aug 14at ATL2 − 0W
Aug 12vs COL4 − 6L
Aug 11vs COL2 − 3L
Aug 10vs COL9 − 0W