bayesRatings

Reds at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final CIN 10 – SF 9
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN01100010710150
SF0200220309122
Team box
CIN·SF
15
hits
12
3
home runs
3
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
12
172
pitches thrown
184
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hector RodriguezCIN3-6222
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-5114
Rafael DeversSF2-4112
Shay WhitcombSF2-4212
Jonah CoxSF1-3212
Drew GilbertSF1-1003
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick LodoloCIN4.06425
Tony Santillan (W)CIN1.02322
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.01002
Logan WebbSF6.05216
Dylan Smith (L)SF0.14200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
CIN +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 6 · CIN 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, SF 51% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.5
RedsThe matchupGiants
+104Our fair odds−104
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.11Power rating−0.14
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game8.4
1.28Home runs / game1.11
3.6Walks drawn / game2.6
62−71Season record54−78
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · SF chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10449%+10149.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10451%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more39%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 7.30 ERA, 9 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·SF
Aug 25 at SF
last game
Aug 25 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
CIN·SF
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
62−71
season record
54−78
32−36
home record
31−33
30−35
away record
23−45
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.4
1.28
home runs / game
1.11
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.55
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CIN · SF · 151 days
Cincinnati RedsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Aug 25at SFSF 3 − 1
Aug 24at SFSF 5 − 0
Apr 16at CINSF 3 − 0
Apr 15at CINCIN 8 − 3
Apr 14at CINCIN 2 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at SFSF 8 − 6
Apr 8, 2025at SFCIN 1 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at SFCIN 2 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at CINSF 6 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 25at SF1 − 3L
Aug 24at SF0 − 5L
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L
Aug 19vs STL5 − 4W
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W
Aug 17vs STL1 − 2L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W