bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Aug 29 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ARI 7 – SF 1
← MLB / Aug 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000412790
SF000000010141
Team box
ARI·SF
9
hits
4
1
home runs
0
3
walks
5
6
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lars NootbaarARI1-1114
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-3001
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-3001
Gabriel MorenoARI2-3100
Jordan LawlarARI1-4001
Rafael DeversSF2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI7.02047
Matt Wilkinson (L)SF6.03224

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · ARI 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 53%, SF 47% · Updated Aug 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupGiants
−113Our fair odds+113
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.15
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.4
0.99Home runs / game1.13
3.3Walks drawn / game2.7
72−64Season record55−80
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.0%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11353%————
SFSan Francisco Giants+11347%————
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySF wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 9.20 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SFMatt Wilkinson SP · last 2 starts: 5.2 IP, 6.35 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SF
Aug 28 at SF
last game
Aug 28 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
ARI·SF
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
72−64
season record
55−80
40−29
home record
32−35
32−35
away record
23−45
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.4
0.99
home runs / game
1.13
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.38
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

ARI · SF · 154 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 2−8
Aug 28at SFARI 10 − 6
Aug 27at SFSF 6 − 1
Jul 1at ARISF 6 − 4
Jun 30at ARIARI 8 − 2
Jun 29at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 27at SFARI 3 − 2
May 26at SFARI 7 − 5
May 25at SFARI 6 − 2
May 20at ARIARI 6 − 3
May 19at ARIARI 5 − 3

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 28at SF10 − 6W
Aug 27at SF1 − 6L
Aug 26vs CHC2 − 0W
Aug 25vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 24vs CHC0 − 7L
Aug 23vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W