bayesRatings

Cubs at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Aug 24 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CHC 7 – ARI 0
← MLB / Aug 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0100132007100
ARI000000000050
Team box
CHC·ARI
10
hits
5
2
home runs
0
4
walks
1
4
strikeouts
6
126
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael ConfortoCHC3-3212
Carson KellyCHC1-3111
Ian HappCHC2-5101
Pedro RamirezCHC2-4101
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-5001
Max KeplerARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (W)CHC7.03016
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI5.25334

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · CHC 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 53%, ARI 47% · Updated Aug 24

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 4.3 ARI
Expected total
9.5
CubsThe matchupDiamondbacks
−113Our fair odds+113
5.2Expected runs4.3
+0.25Power rating+0.05
5.2Runs / game4.6
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.2
1.33Home runs / game0.98
4.3Walks drawn / game3.4
75−56Season record69−62
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · ARI chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11353%−14258.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11347%+11945.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byARI wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·ARI
Aug 23 at SEA
last game
Aug 23 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 131+ games
CHC·ARI
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.2
runs / game
4.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
75−56
season record
69−62
38−27
home record
38−28
37−29
away record
31−34
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.2
1.33
home runs / game
0.98
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.37
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

CHC · ARI · 149 days
Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
May 3at CHCCHC 8 − 4
May 2at CHCCHC 2 − 0
May 1at CHCCHC 6 − 5
Apr 20, 2025at CHCARI 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
Apr 18, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 11
Mar 30, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 6
Mar 29, 2025at ARICHC 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at ARICHC 10 − 6

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 23at SEA19 − 2W
Aug 22at SEA4 − 5L
Aug 21at SEA5 − 6L
Aug 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Aug 18vs CHW4 − 3W
Aug 17vs CHW7 − 5W
Aug 16vs STL4 − 11L
Aug 15vs STL4 − 8L
Aug 14vs STL3 − 0W
Aug 13at WSH0 − 7L

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 23vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L
Aug 17at BOS1 − 11L
Aug 16at ATL3 − 5L
Aug 15at ATL10 − 3W
Aug 14at ATL2 − 0W
Aug 12vs COL4 − 6L