bayesRatings

Cubs at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CHC 4 – ARI 5
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000301000470
ARI000000032550
Team box
CHC·ARI
7
hits
5
1
home runs
1
2
walks
4
5
strikeouts
6
135
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ian HappCHC1-4113
Ryan WaldschmidtARI1-1112
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-3002
Michael BuschCHC2-3101
Gabriel MorenoARI1-3101
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay HolmesCHC7.02025
Jacob Webb (L)CHC1.01210
Brandon PfaadtARI6.26423
Justin Martinez (W)ARI1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · CHC 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, ARI 46% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
9.4
CubsThe matchupDiamondbacks
−116Our fair odds+116
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.26Power rating+0.04
5.2Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.2
1.33Home runs / game0.98
4.3Walks drawn / game3.4
76−56Season record69−63
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · ARI chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11654%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11646%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byARI wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 5 Kstarted
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·ARI
Aug 24 at ARI
last game
Aug 24 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
CHC·ARI
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
76−56
season record
69−63
38−27
home record
38−29
38−29
away record
31−34
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.2
1.33
home runs / game
0.98
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.37
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

CHC · ARI · 150 days
Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
Aug 24at ARICHC 7 − 0
May 3at CHCCHC 8 − 4
May 2at CHCCHC 2 − 0
May 1at CHCCHC 6 − 5
Apr 20, 2025at CHCARI 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
Apr 18, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 11
Mar 30, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 6
Mar 29, 2025at ARICHC 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 1

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 24at ARI7 − 0W
Aug 23at SEA19 − 2W
Aug 22at SEA4 − 5L
Aug 21at SEA5 − 6L
Aug 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Aug 18vs CHW4 − 3W
Aug 17vs CHW7 − 5W
Aug 16vs STL4 − 11L
Aug 15vs STL4 − 8L
Aug 14vs STL3 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 24vs CHC0 − 7L
Aug 23vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L
Aug 17at BOS1 − 11L
Aug 16at ATL3 − 5L
Aug 15at ATL10 − 3W
Aug 14at ATL2 − 0W