bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Giants

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ARI 10 – SF 6
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI10500310010122
SF111200010651
Team box
ARI·SF
12
hits
5
3
home runs
2
2
walks
4
9
strikeouts
11
162
pitches thrown
182
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tim TawaARI2-5213
Corbin CarrollARI1-3113
Lars NootbaarARI3-4211
Bryce EldridgeSF2-5112
Christian KossSF1-3112
James McCannARI2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kohl DrakeARI4.04514
Gerardo Carrillo (W)ARI1.00021
Blade Tidwell (L)SF5.07614

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · ARI 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 53%, SF 47% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.5 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupGiants
−111Our fair odds+111
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating−0.14
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game8.4
0.98Home runs / game1.12
3.4Walks drawn / game2.6
71−64Season record55−79
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SF chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11153%−12154.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11147%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySF wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIKohl Drake P · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.94 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SF
Aug 27 at SF
last game
Aug 27 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
ARI·SF
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
71−64
season record
55−79
40−29
home record
32−34
31−35
away record
23−45
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.4
0.98
home runs / game
1.12
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.36
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

ARI · SF · 153 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 2−8
Aug 27at SFSF 6 − 1
Jul 1at ARISF 6 − 4
Jun 30at ARIARI 8 − 2
Jun 29at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 27at SFARI 3 − 2
May 26at SFARI 7 − 5
May 25at SFARI 6 − 2
May 20at ARIARI 6 − 3
May 19at ARIARI 5 − 3
May 18at ARIARI 12 − 2

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 27at SF1 − 6L
Aug 26vs CHC2 − 0W
Aug 25vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 24vs CHC0 − 7L
Aug 23vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L
Aug 17at BOS1 − 11L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L