bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Aug 29 · 9:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ARI 2 – SF 7
← MLB / Aug 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI001000100261
SF10003012791
Team box
ARI·SF
6
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
6
9
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce EldridgeSF4-5004
Rafael DeversSF2-5002
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4101
Lars NootbaarARI1-3001
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-4001
Max KeplerARI1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Bratt (L)ARI4.13322
Yunior MarteSF4.23123
Reiver Sanmartin (W)SF0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 5 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 53%, SF 47% · Updated Aug 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupGiants
−113Our fair odds+113
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.15
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.4
0.99Home runs / game1.13
3.3Walks drawn / game2.7
72−64Season record55−80
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.0%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11353%————
SFSan Francisco Giants+11347%————
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySF wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMitch Bratt SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted
SFYunior Marte SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SF
Aug 29 at SF
last game
Aug 29 vs ARI
same day
days of rest
same day
8
games in last 7 days
8
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
ARI·SF
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
72−64
season record
55−80
40−29
home record
32−35
32−35
away record
23−45
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.4
0.99
home runs / game
1.13
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.38
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

ARI · SF · 154 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 2−8
Aug 28at SFARI 10 − 6
Aug 27at SFSF 6 − 1
Jul 1at ARISF 6 − 4
Jun 30at ARIARI 8 − 2
Jun 29at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 27at SFARI 3 − 2
May 26at SFARI 7 − 5
May 25at SFARI 6 − 2
May 20at ARIARI 6 − 3
May 19at ARIARI 5 − 3

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 28at SF10 − 6W
Aug 27at SF1 − 6L
Aug 26vs CHC2 − 0W
Aug 25vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 24vs CHC0 − 7L
Aug 23vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W
Aug 19at BOS7 − 6W
Aug 18at BOS4 − 9L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L
Aug 21at BOS4 − 6L
Aug 20at CLE2 − 5L
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W