bayesRatings

Braves at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 2 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final ATL 9 – WSH 0
← MLB / Sep 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL0000033219110
WSH000000000021
Team box
ATL·WSH
11
hits
2
2
home runs
0
6
walks
2
11
strikeouts
6
112
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sean MurphyATL2-4214
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL3-5213
Austin RileyATL2-4002
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-5100
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4100
Ha-Seong KimATL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL3.00001
Elieser Hernandez (W)ATL3.01011
Brad LordWSH3.12016
Riley Cornelio (L)WSH2.23313

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +9
ATL +9
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · ATL 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, WSH 46% · Updated Sep 2

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 5.5 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
10.4
BravesThe matchupNationals
−116Our fair odds+116
5.5Expected runs4.9
+0.15Power rating−0.08
4.6Runs / game5.2
3.8Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.5
1.27Home runs / game1.37
2.9Walks drawn / game3.5
82−57Season record67−74
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11654%−14859.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11646%+11945.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 9 Kstarted
WSHBrad Lord RP · last 3 starts: 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Sep 1 at WSH
last game
Sep 1 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.6
runs / game
5.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
82−57
season record
67−74
48−24
home record
33−39
34−33
away record
34−35
L2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.5
1.27
home runs / game
1.37
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.44
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 158 days
Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Sep 1at WSHWSH 9 − 5
Aug 2at ATLATL 4 − 2
Aug 1at ATLATL 8 − 3
Jul 31at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 30at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 24at ATLWSH 2 − 1
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Sep 1at WSH5 − 9L
Aug 31vs SF3 − 7L
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W
Aug 27vs LAD1 − 0W
Aug 26vs LAD6 − 5W
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 23at MIL4 − 2W
Aug 22at MIL1 − 4L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L