bayesRatings

Phillies at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final PHI 2 – ARI 1
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI011000000260
ARI001000000191
Team box
PHI·ARI
6
hits
9
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
3
strikeouts
9
165
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryson StottPHI1-4111
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5001
Bryce HarperPHI2-4001
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-4000
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4000
Ketel MarteARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (W)PHI5.05124
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.02002
Brandon Pfaadt (L)ARI6.05211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · PHI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, ARI 49% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.5 ARI
Expected total
9.3
PhilliesThe matchupDiamondbacks
−104Our fair odds+104
4.8Expected runs4.5
+0.17Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game8.2
1.20Home runs / game0.99
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
77−60Season record73−65
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ARI chance
Our model fair51.0%48.9%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10451%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10449%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byARI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 24 Kstarted
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ARI
Aug 30 at LAA
last game
Aug 29 at SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
PHI·ARI
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
77−60
season record
73−65
38−30
home record
40−29
39−30
away record
33−36
W4
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.2
1.20
home runs / game
0.99
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.50
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

PHI · ARI · 156 days
Philadelphia PhilliesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Apr 12at PHIARI 4 − 3
Apr 11at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 10at PHIARI 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at ARIARI 9 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at ARIARI 4 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at ARIPHI 8 − 2
May 4, 2025at PHIARI 11 − 9
May 3, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
May 2, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 5

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Aug 30at LAA5 − 2W
Aug 29at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 28at LAA5 − 3W
Aug 26at SEA6 − 0W
Aug 25at SEA1 − 4L
Aug 24at SEA2 − 9L
Aug 23vs STL6 − 4W
Aug 22vs STL12 − 3W
Aug 21vs STL7 − 6W
Aug 19vs MIA4 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 29at SF2 − 7L
Aug 29at SF7 − 1W
Aug 28at SF10 − 6W
Aug 27at SF1 − 6L
Aug 26vs CHC2 − 0W
Aug 25vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 24vs CHC0 − 7L
Aug 23vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 22vs CIN5 − 11L
Aug 21vs CIN9 − 0W