bayesRatings

Braves at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, Sep 5 · 5:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATL 2 – PHI 4
← MLB / Sep 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL001000100250
PHI21010000490
Team box
ATL·PHI
5
hits
9
2
home runs
1
2
walks
5
12
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-3212
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-4111
Austin RileyATL1-3111
Luis ArraezPHI2-4001
Drake BaldwinATL2-4000
Bryce HarperPHI2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (L)ATL3.27443
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI6.03129
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Sep 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.2 – 4.2 ATL
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupPhillies
+108Our fair odds−108
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.17Power rating+0.17
4.7Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.3
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.27Home runs / game1.18
2.9Walks drawn / game3.2
84−57Season record79−62
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+10848%+13442.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10852%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more36%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PHI
Sep 4 at PHI
last game
Sep 4 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
ATL·PHI
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.7
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
84−57
season record
79−62
48−24
home record
38−31
36−33
away record
41−31
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.27
home runs / game
1.18
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.43
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

ATL · PHI · 161 days
Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 3−7
Sep 4at PHIATL 5 − 2
Apr 26at ATLATL 6 − 2
Apr 25at ATLPHI 8 − 5
Apr 24at ATLATL 5 − 3
Apr 19at PHIATL 4 − 2
Apr 18at PHIATL 3 − 1
Apr 17at PHIATL 9 − 0
Aug 31, 2025at PHIATL 3 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 4at PHI5 − 2W
Sep 2at WSH9 − 0W
Sep 1at WSH5 − 9L
Aug 31vs SF3 − 7L
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W
Aug 27vs LAD1 − 0W
Aug 26vs LAD6 − 5W
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 4vs ATL2 − 5L
Sep 2at ARI0 − 1L
Sep 1at ARI7 − 1W
Aug 31at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 30at LAA5 − 2W
Aug 29at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 28at LAA5 − 3W
Aug 26at SEA6 − 0W
Aug 25at SEA1 − 4L
Aug 24at SEA2 − 9L