bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Astros

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ARI 1 – HOU 3
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000100000130
HOU00300000370
Team box
ARI·HOU
3
hits
7
1
home runs
1
7
walks
0
13
strikeouts
6
119
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yainer DiazHOU2-3111
Gabriel MorenoARI1-2111
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4100
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3001
Ketel MarteARI1-3000
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI6.07304
Cristian Javier (W)HOU5.01138
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 3 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
9.0
DiamondbacksThe matchupAstros
+102Our fair odds−102
4.6Expected runs4.4
+0.04Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game8.1
0.98Home runs / game1.31
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
74−67Season record72−69
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · HOU chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10249%+10947.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10251%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byHOU wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 13 Kstarted
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·HOU
Sep 2 vs PHI
last game
Sep 3 vs CHW
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
ARI·HOU
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
74−67
season record
72−69
41−31
home record
36−36
33−36
away record
36−33
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.1
0.98
home runs / game
1.31
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.38
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

ARI · HOU · 160 days
Arizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 8−2
Jul 23, 2025at ARIHOU 4 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ARIHOU 3 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at ARIHOU 6 − 3
Sep 8, 2024at HOUARI 12 − 6
Sep 7, 2024at HOUHOU 11 − 5
Sep 6, 2024at HOUHOU 8 − 0
Oct 1, 2023at ARIHOU 8 − 1
Sep 30, 2023at ARIHOU 1 − 0
Sep 29, 2023at ARIHOU 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2022at HOUARI 5 − 2

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 2vs PHI1 − 0W
Sep 1vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 31vs PHI1 − 2L
Aug 29at SF2 − 7L
Aug 29at SF7 − 1W
Aug 28at SF10 − 6W
Aug 27at SF1 − 6L
Aug 26vs CHC2 − 0W
Aug 25vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 24vs CHC0 − 7L

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 3vs CHW6 − 2W
Sep 2vs CHW2 − 0W
Sep 1vs CHW1 − 5L
Aug 31vs CHW6 − 3W
Aug 30at NYM6 − 3W
Aug 29at NYM2 − 6L
Aug 28at NYM3 − 1W
Aug 27at NYY5 − 1W
Aug 26at NYY3 − 9L
Aug 25at NYY9 − 7W