bayesRatings

Astros at Mets

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final HOU 3 – NYM 1
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000003000340
NYM000100000150
Team box
HOU·NYM
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
6
walks
1
8
strikeouts
14
137
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daulton VarshoHOU1-4002
Yainer DiazHOU1-4001
Marcus SemienNYM2-2000
Carson BengeNYM1-4001
Jose AltuveHOU1-3100
Jeremy PenaHOU1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Brown (W)HOU6.251110
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00002
Christian Scott (L)NYM5.11352

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · HOU 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, NYM 52% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.4 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.8
AstrosThe matchupMets
+107Our fair odds−107
4.4Expected runs4.4
−0.04Power rating−0.04
4.6Runs / game4.1
4.9Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game7.9
1.34Home runs / game1.22
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
67−67Season record60−74
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · NYM chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10748%−11252.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10752%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
NYMNew York MetsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more36%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more26%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 13 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·NYM
Aug 27 at NYY
last game
Aug 27 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
HOU·NYM
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
67−67
season record
60−74
33−35
home record
31−37
34−32
away record
29−37
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.9
1.34
home runs / game
1.22
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.45
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

HOU · NYM · 153 days
Houston AstrosNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
Mar 29, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Mar 28, 2025at HOUNYM 3 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at NYMHOU 10 − 5
Jun 29, 2024at NYMHOU 9 − 6
Jun 28, 2024at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Jun 21, 2023at HOUHOU 10 − 8
Jun 20, 2023at HOUHOU 4 − 2
Jun 19, 2023at HOUNYM 11 − 1
Jun 29, 2022at NYMHOU 2 − 0

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 27at NYY5 − 1W
Aug 26at NYY3 − 9L
Aug 25at NYY9 − 7W
Aug 23vs ATH6 − 7L
Aug 22vs ATH3 − 4L
Aug 21vs ATH4 − 0W
Aug 20vs LAA3 − 18L
Aug 19vs LAA3 − 2W
Aug 18vs LAA1 − 3L
Aug 16vs SEA2 − 3L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 27vs MIL2 − 8L
Aug 26vs MIL1 − 8L
Aug 25vs MIL3 − 2W
Aug 23at CHW1 − 2L
Aug 22at CHW10 − 5W
Aug 21at CHW4 − 6L
Aug 19vs SD4 − 2W
Aug 18vs SD2 − 5L
Aug 17vs SD2 − 1W
Aug 16vs WSH4 − 3W